Overview

Energy Acuity has licensedΒ Navigant Consulting’s 30-year LMP forecast. The forecast provides monthly and annual on-peak, off-peak, and all hours forecasts for major price hubs and zones across the U.S. and Canada. Available regions are listed below and regions are sold separately.

Each forecast includes a 3-5 page market assumptions document detailing the region-level assumptions that go into the price forecasts (see below). The market assumptions document also provides analysis into main drivers behind prices.

Assumptions include:

  • Annual additions / retirements
  • Annual supply/demand balance
  • Annual gas prices
  • Annual market heat rates

Regions and Pricing Points

California

β€” NP 15
β€” ZP 26
β€” SP 15
β€” PG&E Main
β€” SCE
β€” SDG&E

MISO

β€” Alliant East – Wisconsin Power and Light Company
β€” Entergy
β€” Midamerican Energy Co.
β€” Illinois Hub
β€” Indiana Hub
β€” Michigan Hub
β€” Minnesota Hub

SERC

β€” Duke Energy Carolinas
β€” Progress Energy Carolinas East
β€” Progress Energy Carolinas West
β€” Santee Cooper
β€” South Carolina Electric & Gas Company
β€” E.On US
β€” Tennessee Valley Authority
β€” Associated Electric Cooperative Inc.
β€” Alabama Power Company
β€” Georgia Power Company

ERCOT

β€” Houston Hub
β€” West Hub
β€” North Hub
β€” South Hub

NYISO

β€” Zone A – West
β€” Zone B – Genessee
β€” Zone C – Central
β€” Zone D – North
β€” Zone E – Mohawk Valley
β€” Zone F – Capital
β€” Zone G – Hudson Valley
β€” Zone I – Dunwoodie
β€” Zone J – New York City
β€” Zone K – Long Island

SPP

β€” AEP West
β€” Kansas City Power & Light Co.
β€” Nebraska Public Power District
β€” Oklahoma Gas & Electric Company
β€” Southwestern Public Service Company
β€” Westar Energy/Western Resources

Florida

β€” Florida Hub
β€” Florida Muni Power Pool
β€” Progress Energy FL
β€” FL Power & Light
β€” Gainesville Regional Utilities
β€” JEA
β€” Seminole Electric Coop
β€” Tallahassee Electric Dept.
β€” Tampa Electric Company

Ontario

β€” Ontario East
β€” Ontario West
β€” Ontario Toronto
β€” Ontario Ottowa

WECC-US

β€” California-Oregon Border
β€” Mid-C
β€” Palo Verde
β€” Mead
β€” Mona

ISONE

β€” ISONE Hub
β€” Main – Central
β€” Boston
β€” Massachusetts – Central/Northeast
β€” Massachusetts – Southeast
β€” Massachusetts – Western
β€” Vermont
β€” Rhode Island
β€” Connecticut – Southwest
β€” Connecticut – Central/Northeast

PJM

β€” Baltimore Gas & Electric
β€” Eastern Hub
β€” Potomac Electric Power
β€” Pennsylvania Power & Light
β€” Public Service Electric & Gas
β€” AEP Dayton Hub
β€” Commonwealth Edison
β€” Dominion Hub
β€” Northern Illinois Hub
β€” Western Hub

Canada West

β€” Alberta Central
β€” Alberta NE
β€” Alberta NW
β€” Alberta South
β€” Medicine Hat
β€” BC Hydro
β€” Fortis BC

Methodology

This forecast uses the production cost modeling software, PROMOD. The inputs for this model include plant operating parameters (heat rates, minimum up/down times, ramp rates, start times), non-fuel costs, fuel costs, environmental cost forecasts, transmission constraints, and demand and energy forecasts, as depicted to the left. The model also incorporates Navigant’s proprietary capacity expansion plan for both transmission and generation and utilizes Navigant’s fully integrated natural gas price forecast.

The initial structural forecast produced by PROMOD represents prices under conditions of perfect foresight about market conditions. They lack price volatility stemming from fuel price, emissions price and demand volatility, as well as deviations in market bidding away from marginal cost bidding. To account for this, Navigant performs backcasts for previous years where actual historical inputs (demand, fuel prices, etc…) are run through PROMOD to get backcasts for those years. Those back cast prices are then compared to actual historical prices, and forecast prices are adjusted based on those differences.

Navigant runs the model at the nodal level with a full transmission representation. These nodal hourly prices are then aggregated into the monthly and annual zonal and hub prices included in this forecast.

A full explanation of the forecast methodology, as well as a sample forecast, are included in the links below.

30-year-forecast sample (.xlsx)
30-year-forecast methodology
30-Year-Forecast Sample Market Assumptions (.pdf)

Still Have Questions?

 

Energy Acuity Product Suite contains 7 separate databasesΒ with complimentary dashboards and analysis. Our intelligence powers the growth of the renewable energy & clean tech industries.

Tell us a little about yourself and we’ll show you why our users love us!

 

β€œThe folks at Energy Acuity are always open to our feedback and have accommodated us with our requests when asked. This tool is indispensable to our Sales Engineers and the expense is well worth the price of admission.”

Sales Manager, Siemens