30-Year Energy Pricing Forecast


Energy Acuity has licensed Navigant Consulting’s 30-year LMP forecast. The forecast provides monthly and annual on-peak, off-peak, all hours, and solar/wind weighted forecasts for major price hubs and zones across the U.S. and Canada. Available regions are listed below and regions are sold separately.

Solar and wind weighted pricing is calculated by using production shapes from NREL and applying several shapes across each state to account for geographic diversity.  The solar and wind weighted amount is a generation weighted price based on the hourly solar and wind production and the hourly LMP.  It will only count hours during which solar or wind is operating, and it will weight those hours by how much generation it is producing.

Each forecast includes a 3-5 page market assumptions document detailing the region-level assumptions that go into the price forecasts (see below). The market assumptions document also provides analysis into main drivers behind prices.

Assumptions include:

  • Annual additions / retirements
  • Annual supply/demand balance
  • Annual gas prices
  • Annual market heat rates

Regions and Pricing Points


— NP 15
— ZP 26
— SP 15
— PG&E Main


— Alliant East – Wisconsin Power and Light Company
— Entergy
— Midamerican Energy Co.
— Illinois Hub
— Indiana Hub
— Michigan Hub
— Minnesota Hub


— Duke Energy Carolinas
— Progress Energy Carolinas East
— Progress Energy Carolinas West
— Santee Cooper
— South Carolina Electric & Gas Company
— E.On US
— Tennessee Valley Authority
— Associated Electric Cooperative Inc.
— Alabama Power Company
— Georgia Power Company


— Houston Hub
— West Hub
— North Hub
— South Hub


— Zone A – West
— Zone B – Genessee
— Zone C – Central
— Zone D – North
— Zone E – Mohawk Valley
— Zone F – Capital
— Zone G – Hudson Valley
— Zone I – Dunwoodie
— Zone J – New York City
— Zone K – Long Island


— AEP West
— Kansas City Power & Light Co.
— Nebraska Public Power District
— Oklahoma Gas & Electric Company
— Southwestern Public Service Company
— Westar Energy/Western Resources


— Florida Hub
— Florida Muni Power Pool
— Progress Energy FL
— FL Power & Light
— Gainesville Regional Utilities
— Seminole Electric Coop
— Tallahassee Electric Dept.
— Tampa Electric Company


— Ontario East
— Ontario West
— Ontario Toronto
— Ontario Ottowa


— California-Oregon Border
— Mid-C
— Palo Verde
— Mead
— Mona


— Main – Central
— Boston
— Massachusetts – Central/Northeast
— Massachusetts – Southeast
— Massachusetts – Western
— Vermont
— Rhode Island
— Connecticut – Southwest
— Connecticut – Central/Northeast


— Baltimore Gas & Electric
— Eastern Hub
— Potomac Electric Power
— Pennsylvania Power & Light
— Public Service Electric & Gas
— AEP Dayton Hub
— Commonwealth Edison
— Dominion Hub
— Northern Illinois Hub
— Western Hub

Canada West

— Alberta Central
— Alberta NE
— Alberta NW
— Alberta South
— Medicine Hat
— BC Hydro
— Fortis BC


This forecast uses the production cost modeling software, PROMOD. The inputs for this model include plant operating parameters (heat rates, minimum up/down times, ramp rates, start times), non-fuel costs, fuel costs, environmental cost forecasts, transmission constraints, and demand and energy forecasts, as depicted to the left. The model also incorporates Navigant’s proprietary capacity expansion plan for both transmission and generation and utilizes Navigant’s fully integrated natural gas price forecast.

The initial structural forecast produced by PROMOD represents prices under conditions of perfect foresight about market conditions. They lack price volatility stemming from fuel price, emissions price and demand volatility, as well as deviations in market bidding away from marginal cost bidding. To account for this, Navigant performs backcasts for previous years where actual historical inputs (demand, fuel prices, etc…) are run through PROMOD to get backcasts for those years. Those back cast prices are then compared to actual historical prices, and forecast prices are adjusted based on those differences.

Navigant runs the model at the nodal level with a full transmission representation. These nodal hourly prices are then aggregated into the monthly and annual zonal and hub prices included in this forecast.

A full explanation of the forecast methodology, as well as a sample forecast, are included in the links below.

30-year-forecast sample (.xlsx)
30-year-forecast methodology
30-Year-Forecast Sample Market Assumptions (.pdf)

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